PML-N will Win the Elections 2018 and PTI will Lose Again?
How the elections 2018 will unravel seems quite predictable if you have been following the political debates and updates on various social media platforms over the internet. With elections just around the corner, and the NAB convicting the former premier, Nawaz Sharif, and his daughter for several years of imprisonment in a corruption case. It is quite evident that the ball is in the Khan’s court.
The young educated generation, on whose support PTI banks the most has been celebrating Imran Khan’s success the day Nawaz was disqualified for life and was removed from the position of Prime Minister.
The PML-N came into power in 2013. Nawaz Sharif assumed the position of Prime Minister and Shahbaz Sharif became the CM Punjab. However, since the 2013 General Election, Pakistan has been in a state of political and administrative commotion. The first real threat that the government faced was the famous dharna of PTI supporters, where thousands of people marched from different parts of the country and sat in the streets in protest for several months, until the protest was called off due the Army Public School tragedy in Peshawar. Thus the protests couldn’t bring about any desired results, and the PMLN took a breath of relief.
PML-N even survived the backlash of the Model Town incident and it became evident that all the efforts of the opposition were futile and Nawaz and his party was unassailable. The situation however took a sharp turn and the history decided to repeat once again. Nawaz Sharif was again on the verge of losing power. Panama Papers leaked 11.5 million documents stating the ownership and possession of offshore companies by the several elites of the world. Former Premier Nawaz Sharif became the second world leader to be affected by the Panama Papers leak. The Pakistan Supreme Court unanimously disqualified Nawaz Sharif for life and removed him from the office in the light of the Panama Papers scandal.
On Jul 6, the accountability court announced the verdict in the Avenfield properties corruption reference filed by the NAB. The ousted PM will serve 10 years in jail while Maryam Nawaz and Captain Safdar will face 7 and 1 year of imprisonment, respectively.
Captain Safdar has been detained in the Adiala Jail Rawalpindi, while Nawaz and Daughter have arrived at the Lahore Airport today to hand themselves in.
The opposition are celebrating their victory against the PML-N, calling it a clean sweep before the elections. The PTI supporters believe that nothing can stop Imran Khan from becoming the next Prime Minister of Pakistan and they are hailing their leader for his relentless efforts.
Unfortunately, the chances for PTI to win the elections this year are still very narrow! The verdict of the court against NS must have shocked the common people but they are unaware of the fact that the Sharif family and the PML-N is quite adept to dealing with such situations.
How Elections will take place in different Provinces
In Pakistan masses usually vote on the basis of perceptions and emotions, and more importantly on the basis of ethnicity. Our country simply lacks the prerequisites of a functioning democracy. This is why pocketing electables has become quite rampant in our country to gain support and ensure success. The parties fund influential people of the communities to convince the people in their areas to vote for them. This is why we have people voting for biryani, people voting for nihari and in the rural areas people voting for stomach unfortunately.
In the Sindh there is a prominent dividing line between the urban and the rural class. The rural Sindh is a stronghold of the PPP and that part of the province has never led its leadership down. The rural Sindh has always supported PPP and they shall continue to do it for another 100 years. However, the urban Sindh is going to show the country an element of surprise due to the formation of the infamous PSP (Pak Sarzameen Party) of Mustafa Kamal. The MQM was the most revered political party for the urban Sindh but the PSP has encouraged the common people to come out of the ethnic divide and base their ideology more on patriotic grounds. This set of ideas has made a huge difference in the politics of Sindh, with the PSP members reaching a number of more than 100,000 in a matter of one and a half year only.
As for the Balochistan, a lot of hard work is required from the political parties to win people’s hearts. The banned outfits should be controlled and the massacre of Hazara community should be brought to an end if any party wants to gain support from the province.
PML-N enjoys a special position in Balochistan because since the 2013 general elections, the number of terrorist attacks have decreased significantly. Moreover, the PMLN has also developed infrastructure in the province as part of the CPEC and has created jobs for thousands of people. The CPEC has worked as a light of hope for the balochi people and therefore, PMLN can consider itself safe in Balochistan.
In Punjab, PMLN will once again enjoy a clean sweep. As it is often said about the politics of Pakistan, “it is a government of the Punjab, by the Punjab and for the Punjab”. Although the prime focus of the PMLN and the CM Shahbaz Sharif always remains on the development of Lahore and the other parts of the Punjab, especially the South Punjab remains neglected, Punjab still forms the main and stoutest stronghold for the PMLN party. PMLN has created thousands of job people across the country. CPEC is one of the biggest achievements of PMLN government that led to fast infrastructural developments in different parts of the country. The government created cost effective public transport. It sent young students to China to learn their language and play their part in the CPEC project. The construction Multan and Faisalabad motorway also need a special mention here.
All these projects, all these development plans ultimately result in the popularity and fame of PMLN in the biggest province of the country, the Punjab.
As far as KPK is concerned, not only the sentiments of the people of that province are complex but so is the political environment. The best part about KPK is that they don’t mind giving chance to a new candidate if it promises change. The most neglected and underdeveloped province has always longed for betterment and that they now see in the form of PTI. The majority of the seats that PTI was able to secure in the 2013 elections were from KPK.
Although PTI has done several progressive projects for the development of KPK, yet it seems that this time the party might lose a number of supporter from its province. The ideology of PTI was to give the young generation a chance of leadership and practice zero tolerance for corruption at all levels.
Unfortunately, the party is now pocketing the old age electables from different parts of the country in order to win the elections. The PTI and its head, Khan, for their part are also equally convincing that without having these “electables” one cannot hope of attaining political power in Pakistan. PNLN since the early 1980s has been coming to powerriding the shoulders of electables and that’s how politics and democracy works in this country. Electables have a social role and influence and without them no political party can gain huge support.
The PTI is also facing criticism and anger from the supporters for giving tickets to the politicians who were once members of the condemned parties and had downgraded agendas.
Another challenge that PTI can face is from the JUI of Mualana Fazl ur Rahman. The JUI always sides with the party which gives them more ‘fodder’, PTI will eventually find that JUI-F will support PML-N once again.
As I have already said before that Pakistan is unfortunate to lack proper standards of politics. It lacks the basic fundamentals of democracy and political awareness among the public is nonexistent.
We as a nation are adept to vote with emotions and sentiments and this time nation’s hearts bleed with the Sharif family. Just like in the 2008 elections the masses casted a sympathy vote for the PPP after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. In the same way majority of the people are going to vote for PMLN once again praising the courage of Nawaz and Maryam to hand themselves in. the ailing Kalsoom Nawaz is yet another way of gaining sympathy from the supporters.
The arrests of Nawaz, Maryam and Safdar may be shocking but it is yet another political tactic played by the PMLN to increase the likelihood of winning the election that stands only 12 days away!
if still PMLN fails to win the elections this year, the next one is definitely promised to Nawaz league considering the portrayal of NS as Bhutto and Maryam Nawaz as the Benazir of today!